Managing Uncertainty: Controllables, Uncontrollables, and the CEO’s Real Job
In 2025, “uncertainty” isn’t just a headline, it’s the backdrop to everything.
Economic volatility, shifting trade policies, and the unpredictable pace of AI adoption have made leading a company less about executing a plan and more about steering in fog. For most executives, the harder truth is that the list of things outside your control is growing faster than the list of things you can actually manage.
So how do you lead when the unknowns are multiplying?
Control What You Can. Plan for What You Can’t.
One of the most liberating mindsets for a CEO is accepting you can’t control everything. But that’s not a license to ignore it—it’s a call to prepare for the likely impacts.
A tariff threat might not be in your control, but a plan for how your supply chain would respond to one is. That’s the difference between being blindsided and being ready.
When Corey stepped into the CEO role at Yello in the earliest days of COVID, the company already had a “pandemic plan.” Not because someone predicted a global shutdown, but because government clients had required disaster planning as part of their certifications. It was simple—test the video conferencing systems, prepare for remote work, assign a point person for office access. That forethought meant uninterrupted business when the world changed overnight.
Build Multiple Plans, Not Just One
In stable markets, one annual budget might be enough. In volatile markets, it’s a liability.
Corey now advises CEOs to run not just a working budget and forecast, but also “downside plans” for revenue drops of 10%, 20%, and 30%. Identify your break points—the moment when the business would truly be in trouble—and make sure your board understands them.
This isn’t fear-mongering. It’s giving yourself the levers to act fast without making decisions in a panic. And those levers might not be obvious until you name them — things like media spend, supplier contracts, discretionary projects. Large companies pull these levers all the time. Smaller companies need to plan with the same discipline.
Communication is a Trust Tool
In uncertainty, communication can either build or erode trust.
To customers, the message is simple: we’re steady, we’ve got you. Internally, the conversation is more nuanced. Your team doesn’t need every scenario mapped out in peacetime, but if a risk becomes likely, then they deserve to know your plan.
Don’t “sell” your employees. Tell them. Treat them like adults. That means answering the hard questions directly whether it’s tariffs, economic slowdown, or an AI-driven industry shift.
It also means making risk reviews routine. If you only bring up “uncertainty planning” when something’s going wrong, people assume there’s a crisis. Make it a standing agenda item, and it becomes normal.
Make the Call—Even Without Perfect Data
The worst decision a CEO can make is none at all.
Uncertainty forces you to make choices without perfect information. The job isn’t to wait until every variable is known—it’s to act when you have enough to make a call, and to know which calls can be reversed and which can’t.
Sometimes that means making unpopular decisions. At Undertone, Corey refused to chase short-term revenue from video ads because the unit economics didn’t work. The sales team hated it. The investors wanted growth. But it kept the business from losing money on a product that ultimately didn’t align with customer demand.
Your team doesn’t have to agree with every decision to trust your leadership. But they do need to understand your logic; that’s why post-decision retrospectives are such a powerful cultural tool. Over time, transparency around how decisions get made builds more resilience than getting every decision right.
The CEO’s Real Job in Uncertainty
In times like these, the CEO isn’t the one writing every plan or pulling every lever. The CEO’s job is to:
Make sure those plans exist.
Pressure-test them like a board member would.
Communicate clearly without creating panic.
Decide quickly enough to matter.
Economic uncertainty and AI disruption aren’t on the horizon—they’re here. The leaders who will navigate this moment aren’t the ones waiting for perfect conditions. They’re the ones who can separate controllables from uncontrollables, prepare for the latter, and keep the trust of their teams while making the calls no one else wants to make.
Closing thought:
The fog isn’t going away. Your job isn’t to make it disappear—it’s to keep moving forward with enough light to see the next step, and enough trust that people will follow you into it.